Separate four different signals

  1. Pricing shown: the product lists a subscription price. That is an offer, not revenue.
  2. Usage or sign-ups reported: people may have tried the product; the number does not reveal paid conversion or retention.
  3. Founder-reported revenue: a founder publicly states a figure. Keep the original link and the period.
  4. Provider-verified revenue: an independent payment or accounting provider supports the figure. Check what exactly it verified and when.

These categories answer different questions. A product can have a healthy user base and no subscriptions, or a small number of paying buyers and few public sign-ups.

Read the unit and time period

MRR usually refers to monthly recurring revenue; ARR is an annualized recurring-revenue measure. A launch-day sales total, gross merchandise value, one-time service revenue, and a subscription run rate are not interchangeable. If a founder writes “$10k MRR,” note the currency, month, source, and whether the claim is current or historical.

A source link is part of the record. If the original claim disappears or lacks a date, lower confidence rather than filling in the gap. Do not extrapolate from a public price multiplied by an unverified user count.

Use traction to form questions, not forecasts

Revenue in another market can show that somebody paid for a type of outcome. It does not show that Indian buyers share the same workflow, budget, or channel. Ask which segment pays, what the product replaces, how the seller reached those buyers, and whether the same conditions exist in your target market.

Also look at the boring factors: onboarding, support, integrations, and renewals. These can explain commercial success more than the visible product interface. A clean clone of a landing page does not reproduce distribution or trust.

Keep an evidence ledger

For every lead, save the claim, URL, date checked, period, and evidence tier. Use “unknown” when you cannot substantiate revenue. This is why the What to Build board has separate columns for revenue status, figure, and source.

When you are ready to choose a build, combine the ledger with a competitor review and your own buyer interviews. Public traction helps prioritize research; it does not replace local validation.